It is the annual divination time if people like me-stick from her neck and try to predict the future. I invite you to join in the fun. Refresh your crystal ball and share your publishing forecasts for 2011 in the comments field below.
Earlier on today, interviewed Jeff Rivera on the Media Bistro, for my ten publishing book at me forecasts for 2011.
I'll list five below, and then I encourage you to have Media Bistro, click 10 in his interview for the full publishing forecasts for 2011 Smashword s.
2010 Which went mainstream year of eBooks in the United States was when 2011 will be the year with indie eBook authors are mainstream go. We have already seen this start with some huge indie eBook author outbreaks occurred in 2010. A few weeks ago I wrote about Smashwords author Brian S. Pratt.
So, here are five predictions for 2011:
1. EBook sales increase, unit consumption surprises - eBooks sales are 20% of trade book revenue on a monthly basis until the 2011 u.s. approach nor the bigger surprise is that eBooks will account for a third or more of the unit consumption. Why? Read more about EBooks cost less and eBook "early adopters".
2. Agents write the next chapter of the eBook revolution - agents, serve the economic interests of the best-selling authors, bring new credibility to self publishing encouraging authors to circumvent publishers proactively and work directly with eBook distribution platforms. Agents will this publishing platforms for negotiations use against large publishers use. The conversation will go something like this: "you are my author offering just 15-20% list on eBooks if you list the 60-70 can I get % work directly with an eBook distributor like Smashwords or retailers such as Amazon?"
3. Reluctant to part with digital rights - more great authors indie eBook publishing offers compelling advantages to the author. The economics are better (see # 2) and the publishing cycle times are faster (an eBook manuscript today can upload and achieved worldwide distribution in minutes or days rather than years). EBooks offer larger publishing flexibility (shorts, full length, bundles, free books), and the opportunity to achieve lower costs (still higher profit) more readers with books. The benefits are attract more professional writers to some or all your future catalog and all your reset-rights catalog itself.
4. Self publishing is last resort option of first resort under unpublished authors - still seek the unpublished authors to achieve the credibility and blessing, comes with a professional book deal. Yet the cachet of the traditional publishing is fading fast. Authors with final manuscripts will grow, impatient and angry as you wait from major publishers otherwise drivel trailer has with the release of celebrity, Justin Bieber and the Kardashians discovered. Now is the break-out success of several indie stars author in 2011, forcing many unpublished authors from the sidelines headlines. How unpublished authors deal the pile of mud, publishers lose first dibs on future stars of tomorrow.
5. EBook prices to fall - it's all about supply and demand. Demand is surging, but supply is overwhelming demand. Average eBook prices fall to hold the line 5 publishers, despite the attempts by agency. The drop is powered by the abundance of books, plenty of low cost or free non-book content, influx of ultra price and sensitive readers that read first, fierce competition for readers and digitisation of rolled back rights and out-of-print books. Indie authors because you can earn retail price of 60-70% to the price compete points major publishers can not touch.
Read all ten of my predictions in the full interview over at Media Bistro, and please share your own predictions in the comments below.
On the Smashwords blog
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